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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate

The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. They writes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.

Debates cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Call for More Extensive Debate

Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."